I hit the trifecta of common hobbies most men pick up when they get into their 30s: Long-distance running, cooking and homebrewing beer. When I’m not cosplaying as a writer, throwing grains, hops and yeast together sounds fun in theory until things (always) go awry. But my long-time friend, who got me into the craft, gave me some simple advice when I started, “Don’t panic. Just wait.”
In some cases, that guidance works for us in fantasy football.
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Justin Herbert found his way back into the top 12 despite the Chargers’ curse continuing to take away from his starting cast. After a rocky start, the Panthers are on a two-game win streak. Some teams need time, or the right opponent, to hit their stride.
However, in a few other cases, six weeks may have made things worse than we saw at the start of the season.
I couldn’t catch the game live, but every update I received about New England’s offense was about Drake Maye. By all accounts, No. 10 looked like the old No. 12 out there in a Patriots’ jersey.
But I noticed something missing while flipping through the film clips.
Just three of Maye’s 26 attempts went to the RBs. At a meager 12.5% share, Week 6 marked the fifth-lowest rate Maye has looked to his rushers for pass-game support since becoming the starter. Said another way, the same week that fantasy managers hoped either Rhamondre Stevenson or TreVeyon Henderson would see more work with Antonio Gibson down for the season, there were fewer opportunities. Even worse, the trio-turned-duo gave us their worst output of the season against a below-average run defense.
Yards per Carry: 3.9 (Weeks 1-5), 2.0 (Week 6)
Rushing Success Rate: 41.1%, 31.8%
Forced Missed Tackle Rate: 16.8%, 9.1%
I referenced yards per carry as the running game should complement the passing attack. However, with neither RB able to gain any ground, Maye averaged more yards to the sticks in obvious passing situations against the Saints than at any point this season (8.1 yards). Luckily, it didn't matter. Regardless, even with the lack of production, there was some optimism that Henderson’s playing time would get a bump with only two in the rotation. Let’s hope Sunday wasn’t a sign of things to come.
Snap Rate: 38% (Weeks 1-5), 29% (Week 6)
Route Share: 38%, 19%
Target Rate: 11%, 8%
Now, to be fair, Henderson did what he could with his chances. He averaged more yards after contact per attempt than Stevenson (2.56 to 1.15). Plus, the rookie was, at worst, serviceable in pass protection. He stepped up to keep Maye clean on his second TD to Kayshon Boutte. Plus, Henderson’s chip block led to a short dump off from Maye before Boutte’s first score. Stevenson’s command over the backfield (71% snap rate, 54% of the carries) continues to indicate the rookie is still acclimating to the NFL. However, with another positive matchup in Week 7 (at Titans), Henderson may have another shot to shine.
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